The Chinese are stuck with one foot in each camp of a contentious battle for control of oil in East Africa. The most recent conflict between the nascent state of South Sudan and its controversial neighbor raises real concerns that China’s controlling stake in 40 percent of Sudan’s oil industry and 60 percent of its export will be seriously disrupted.

This current conflict, which arose earlier this month after claims that Sudan is stealing oil being piped to ports from South Sudan, unfolds just a little more than six months after China put in immediate diplomatic legwork with the new South Sudanese state. They did so with good reason given that estimates suggest the new country is responsible for around 75% of the region’s crude oil output. In the below timeline, you can see how the Chinese publicly responded to the new state in July:

China's response to South Sudan's Independence in July - Click for Live View

History Between China and Sudan

From where does this interest in the stability of Sudan arise? The storyline of relations between China and Sudan includes a backdrop of sanctions imposed on the Sudanese government by the US and UN that left a trade void for the country. China was willing to fill it especially given their increasing need for energy resources, and looking back to 2008 we find a series of investments and diplomatic actions between China and Sudan:

If you look back further than the time frame of the above discussion, you also find that China has been running one of its biggest oil projects in Sudan since 2004. The relationship is ever contentious: China took heat from world leaders when it hosted Sudan’s wanted leader Omar al-Bashir in June of 2011 ahead of the South Sudan’s formal independence, and there are claims that more than $55 million worth of Chinese weapons have been sold to Sudan.

Current Diplomatic Efforts

For some time after al-Bashir visited China, relations between the countries went fairly quiet. There were few, if any, publicly highlighted diplomatic relation events from July to the middle of November (note the time slider on the bottom of the network that shows the time frame being analyzed):

Diplomatic Relation Events for Sudan - July through Mid-November

However, relations suddenly saw a flurry of activity beginning with a pledge from Chinese defense minister Liang Guanglie on November 16 saying that his government would bolster military cooperation with Sudan, and since then, you can see below that China is the second most prominent state (after the United States) for diplomatic relation events with Sudan. The density of lines between network nodes indicates the number of events connecting those entities:

Diplomatic Relation Events for Sudan - Mid-November to Present

Why the sudden action even before the most recent allegations of Sudan stealing in-transit oil from South Sudan? Well, it’s possible that there was anticipation about the United States formally announcing its lifting of sanctions on oil trade with South Sudan after drawing up guidelines for companies to avoid infringing on the sanctions still imposed on Sudan. There also may have been hints that non-Chinese companies such as French oil giant Total would suggest alternative plans to pipe oil through Uganda for export via Kenya or Tanzania; ultimately, a bad solution for China.

The circumstances are fast changing and carry ramifications for the markets, the stability of the entire region, and international relations between China and the Western countries long at odds with Sudan. Monitor further updates by creating an alert for the most recent and near future events related to oil in East Africa.

Tensions are escalating between China and neighboring countries over sovereignty of the South China Sea. Disputes over control of the sea (and more importantly its oil and gas fields) are not unfamiliar, but they’ve escalated recently as China steps up its rhetoric in advance of state-owned oil company CNOOC beginning drilling later this year.

The timeline below shows online momentum of coverage related to the South China Sea so far this year:

Momentum of Discussion on South China Sea - Click for Live View

Now, I won’t try to speculate about what the range of geopolitical chest thumping necessarily implies since there’s an awful lot of diplomatic feinting. For example, a spokesperson for the Philippine Armed Forces suggests that other countries simply change the name of the sea.

However, I do know that scanning the future of the region for any impending, contentious events will be useful in anticipating the next phase of this conflict. So, below is a view of events referencing the South China Sea and a time point over the rest of the year:

We see Taiwan plans to continue regular patrol missions. So, which countries are involved? Quite a few as it turns out since China is claiming territory that bumps up aginst Malaysia, Taiwan, Brunei, the Phillipines, and Vietnam. All are represented in discussion about the future of the region as seen in the treemap below.

Certainly an issue to watch as Taiwan and others plan to continue military exercises in the region, the CNOOC rig is set for drilling possibly as early as July, and several US allies are lined up against China. All the while, American officials are calling for China to resolve the dispute peacefully in advance of Hillary Clinton’s travel to the country later this month, while China claims it’s resolving the dispute exactly the way it is entitled.

If you bump this view of the future related to South China Sea out further, you find even more interesting power grabs from China including the expected deployment of three aircraft carriers in the region by 2017 as the possibility of another competitor (India) emerges.

Future Events Related South China Sea - Click for Live View

If you want to keep tabs on this issue click on the image above and choose the “Create Future” button to set up an alert on forward looking events related to the South China Sea. We’ll certainly track this closely to see if further signals appear tilting this in the direction of a physical, up in arms conflict or if it all turns out to be political posturing.

If you find some of this analysis interesting, check out our open source intelligence tools for government and defense research.

Unrest in North Africa and the Middle East is keeping policy makers and financial analysts on edge as industry in the region, particularly oil production, is disrupted. Seeking Alpha yesterday pointed out a renewed focus on Nigeria in crude oil production as Libya teeters in the balance.

However, as the short post also notes, Nigeria is currently experiencing its fair share of politically fueled violence in advance of April elections on the local, parliamentary and presidential levels. Just yesterday, an explosion at a political rally left several dead, and looking back at the last twelve months, we see no shortage of such incidents:

Click to View Live Timeline

In the timeline, you’ll notice incidents of sectarian violence (such as the recent killing of six Islamic militants) in addition to a series of politically driven events including numerous attacks on offices as recent as February. Not a good sign for security or reliable oil production when the political climate only looks to get more tempestuous over the next few weeks.

We’ve already seen quite a bit of future facing data compiling in Recorded Future related to the upcoming Nigerian elections, and we can quickly identify some of the players and organizations involved:

Click for a Live View

Returning to the risk of turmoil, we look forward over the next 30 days. This timing runs right up to parliamentary elections on April 2nd and then the presidential election on April 9th, and we already find signs of civil unrest: workers in the Delta state are planning a strike for March 4 against the local government over wages as are state and federal doctors for March 9.

Still, more so than civil protests, the biggest danger may be if Nigeria becomes an even higher profile target for militant attacks should the country’s oil become leaned on more heavily by the international community.

We’ll watch this issue closely, and look for more over the next month ahead of Nigeria’s elections.