Tensions are escalating between China and neighboring countries over sovereignty of the South China Sea. Disputes over control of the sea (and more importantly its oil and gas fields) are not unfamiliar, but they’ve escalated recently as China steps up its rhetoric in advance of state-owned oil company CNOOC beginning drilling later this year.
The timeline below shows online momentum of coverage related to the South China Sea so far this year:
Momentum of Discussion on South China Sea - Click for Live View
Now, I won’t try to speculate about what the range of geopolitical chest thumping necessarily implies since there’s an awful lot of diplomatic feinting. For example, a spokesperson for the Philippine Armed Forces suggests that other countries simply change the name of the sea.
However, I do know that scanning the future of the region for any impending, contentious events will be useful in anticipating the next phase of this conflict. So, below is a view of events referencing the South China Sea and a time point over the rest of the year:
- Rest of the Year for the South China Sea – Click for Live View
We see Taiwan plans to continue regular patrol missions. So, which countries are involved? Quite a few as it turns out since China is claiming territory that bumps up aginst Malaysia, Taiwan, Brunei, the Phillipines, and Vietnam. All are represented in discussion about the future of the region as seen in the treemap below.
- Treemap of South China Sea Dispute – Click for Live View
Certainly an issue to watch as Taiwan and others plan to continue military exercises in the region, the CNOOC rig is set for drilling possibly as early as July, and several US allies are lined up against China. All the while, American officials are calling for China to resolve the dispute peacefully in advance of Hillary Clinton’s travel to the country later this month, while China claims it’s resolving the dispute exactly the way it is entitled.
If you bump this view of the future related to South China Sea out further, you find even more interesting power grabs from China including the expected deployment of three aircraft carriers in the region by 2017 as the possibility of another competitor (India) emerges.
Future Events Related South China Sea - Click for Live View
If you want to keep tabs on this issue click on the image above and choose the “Create Future” button to set up an alert on forward looking events related to the South China Sea. We’ll certainly track this closely to see if further signals appear tilting this in the direction of a physical, up in arms conflict or if it all turns out to be political posturing.
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September 1st, 2011 on 9:28 am
[...] Some of the juiciest points that stand out include the supply of weapons or military vehicles to both sides of serious conflicts on the horizon for China. We’re talking the simultaneous provision of arms for China and India (neighboring superpowers that seem almost certain to butt heads), and separately, selling submarines to Vietnam, which is on tense terms with China due to ongoing conflict over the South China Sea. [...]
March 15th, 2012 on 3:53 pm
[...] seen recent challenges over offshore drilling territory come and go (see the dispute over oil deposits in the South China Sea), but this will certainly be an issue to watch as the Israel’s relations with Arab countries [...]