On April 1st, the Telegraph released a detailed analysis of Gaddafi’s inner circle. The article places the leadership into three categories: defectors, likely defectors, and loyalists. However, details were missing on high ranking Libyan military leaders. Further, few press reports have documented the role of military leaders directly involved in the conflict. This may be because Gaddafi has sought to, “weaken the conventional army, creating instead a parallel structure of security brigades whose loyalty is tied to his family”. Here we will examine the complex web of Gaddafi’s political and military relationships. Open source intelligence tools can help us discover new information about these social networks.

The recent UN Security Council resolution contains a wealth of information about Gaddafi’s inner circle. Within the document is a list of known members of Gaddafi’s political and military associates that are banned from traveling abroad. There are a two names on this list that stand out:

Abdulqader Mohammed Al-Baghdadi

Network visualization of Al-Bahdadi's relationships

Al-Baghdadi is the current Prime Minister of Libya under the Gaddafi regime. Although he is designated the Secretary of the General People’s Committee, he is not actually the head of state. Gaddafi and his military leadership appears hold those powers. However, al-Baghdadi does wield considerable power over the oil industry in Libya because of his post on the High Council for Oil & Gas. The report by the MEED also indicates five other influential Libyan leaders in the oil industry: Shokri Mohamed Ghanem, Ahmed al-Hadi Aoun, Azzam al-Mesallati, Omar Gazal and Ali el-Sogher Mohamed Salah. Although many of Gaddafi’s closest advisors have been sacked or defected, Baghdadi is still involved with Libyan government operations. Al-Baghdadi also appears to be affected by the UN sanctions as he was forced to send a deputy to Greece to convey Gaddafi’s message.

Colonel Abdullah Al-Senussi

Overview of media reports related to al-Senoussi

Colonel Abdullah Al-Senussi may be the most influential player within Gaddafi’s inner circle. One article discovered using Recorded Future’s open source intelligence tool states that, “Qadaffi’s most trusted aide, Abdullah Al-Senussi, the director of Military Intelligence…[is said to have] organized mass killings in Benghazi early in the uprising and recruited foreign mercenaries to fight for Qaddafi”. Al-Senussi is the brother-in-law of Gaddafi and is a shadowy figure- only two photos of him can be found. If the reports are correct, then Al-Senussi was responsible for the early mass killing in Benghazi. He was the adviser that called in foreign mercenaries to fight for Gaddafi. The mercenaries from neighboring African countries have bolstered Gaddafi’s security forces and made it more difficult for the rebels to advance.

Although Al-Senussi has been one of Gaddafi’s closest advisers, reports have surfaced that he may have been sacked in February. According to the Telegraph, “His current whereabouts and role are uncertain following reports he was sacked and even, in one rumour for which there is no evidence, shot”. His inability to contain the rebellion may have angered Gaddafi and caused him to take action against Al-Senussi. However, his role cannot entirely be ruled out because of conflicting reports.
Gaddafi’s Family

The role that Gaddafi’s sons play in the Libyan government should not be underestimated. Gaddafi has recently sought to decentralize the military and place this authority in the hands of his family. Thus, the power of Gaddafi’s sons has increased and has turned them into a force of military power. Which sons are the most powerful?

Khamis Gaddafi

Khamis Gaddafi's political relationships

Khamis is directly linked to his father militarily. According to one source he is the leader of the Khamis Brigade, one of Gaddafi’s most important armed factions. The Brigade has also played a leading role in the recent Libyan conflict. On March 22nd it was reported that Khamis Gaddafi was allegedly killed when a Libyan pilot crashed his plane near the Bab al-Azizia barracks. In response, Libyan state TV published a video claiming to show live footage of Khamis  Gaddafi. Both The footage claiming he is alive and the reports of his death have been disputed. Therefore, no one in the press truly knows whether Khamis is dead or not.

Press reports related to Khamis Gaddafi

Hassan Gaddafi
This son is an Army general and was recently “ordered to win support from the Ourfella tribe” for his father. He likely plays only a marginal role in his father’s regime.
Mutassim Gaddafi
He is his father’s National Security Adviser and has met with State Department officials. According to the Financial Times, he also has his own military brigade.

Seif al-Islam Gaddafi

Timeline of press statements related to Seif al-Islam Gaddafi

Seif has appeared as the public face of the Gaddafi regime during the Libyan crisis. He has conducted numerous interviews and appeared to be an heir apparent of his father. Although schooled in the West, he has since become the mouthpiece of his father’s oppressive regime .

The Thorn in the Side of Gaddafi- Abdul Fatah Younis

Overview of media reports mentioning Abdel Fattah Younis

Abdul Fatah Younis used to be one of Gaddafi’s most trusted generals. Younis was a member of the officer corps that overthrew King Idris in 1969 and held the post of Minister of the Interior. Some reports even suggest that he was Gaddafi’s right-hand man. Why should Gaddafi be afraid of Younis?
Younis was one of the first generals sent by Gaddafi to put down the Libyan uprising. Instead of putting down the uprising, he changed sides and joined the rebels. Gaddafi has since placed a US $4 million bounty on his head . Although the rebels have sinced demoted Younis to chief of staff, he is still playing an active role in the resistance movement.

The man who knows everything about Gaddafi’s tactics is fighting alongside the rebels.

Conclusion

Gaddafi’s inner circle is showing signs of weakness. Multiple defections of high-ranking officials has probably caused a brain drain within the Libyan government. The two actors with the greatest amount of knowledge and influence within Gaddafi’s government are on opposing sides. If Al-Senoussi is still at his post, he is likely coordinating attacks on the rebels and calling in mercenary reinforcements. Militarily he appears to be one of Gaddafi’s best suppliers of foreign fighters. In contrast, Gaddafi’s loss of Abdul Fatah Younis must have been a considerable blow to his campaign. Younis has 40 years of experience working for Gaddafi and represents the greatest tactical threat to the regime. The increasing military influence of Gaddafi’s sons should not be overlooked as Gaddafi has sought to decentralize the military in recent years.

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