Unrest in North Africa and the Middle East is keeping policy makers and financial analysts on edge as industry in the region, particularly oil production, is disrupted. Seeking Alpha yesterday pointed out a renewed focus on Nigeria in crude oil production as Libya teeters in the balance.

However, as the short post also notes, Nigeria is currently experiencing its fair share of politically fueled violence in advance of April elections on the local, parliamentary and presidential levels. Just yesterday, an explosion at a political rally left several dead, and looking back at the last twelve months, we see no shortage of such incidents:

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In the timeline, you’ll notice incidents of sectarian violence (such as the recent killing of six Islamic militants) in addition to a series of politically driven events including numerous attacks on offices as recent as February. Not a good sign for security or reliable oil production when the political climate only looks to get more tempestuous over the next few weeks.

We’ve already seen quite a bit of future facing data compiling in Recorded Future related to the upcoming Nigerian elections, and we can quickly identify some of the players and organizations involved:

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Returning to the risk of turmoil, we look forward over the next 30 days. This timing runs right up to parliamentary elections on April 2nd and then the presidential election on April 9th, and we already find signs of civil unrest: workers in the Delta state are planning a strike for March 4 against the local government over wages as are state and federal doctors for March 9.

Still, more so than civil protests, the biggest danger may be if Nigeria becomes an even higher profile target for militant attacks should the country’s oil become leaned on more heavily by the international community.

We’ll watch this issue closely, and look for more over the next month ahead of Nigeria’s elections.