It’s been nearly five months since Tunisia’s longtime President Zine al-Abedine Ben Ali abandoned his post and country in the face of widespread public protests. Yet, despite the swell of pro-democratic sentiment, Tunisia remains without an elected government.

Since Ben Ali’s departure lit the wick for an explosive few months of protest across North Africa and the Middle East, Tunisia’s future remains unclear. Many of the old regime’s officials remain in place, and a creeping power grab by once outlawed Islamist groups is underway ahead of July assembly elections.

In the timeline above, which spans 2010 and 2011, you see little mention of Islamist parties in relation to Tunisia prior to Ben Ali’s departure. Explanations likely include the country’s seeming political stability as well as limited activity due to bans on such groups.

The spike in January clearly corresponds to the peak of the protests in both Tunisia and Egypt, while several other spikes include the return of exiled Islamist party leaders, including longtime head figure Rached Ghannouchi, and ongoing protests forcing the government to legalize prominent political group Ennahda (al-Nahda).

The group has only continued to rise in political activity, sparking claims from a former Tunisian interior minister that the Ben Ali loyalists would stage a coup should Islamists take power in the July elections.

Perhaps the most interesting twist in the story of Ennahda since its resurgence this year was that Rached Ghannouchi, who was in exile for 22 years during Ben Ali’s rule, claims to not be interested in a political position with the group.

The leadership structure for Ennahda remains murky, but it may be valuable in understanding Tunisia’s status to recognize Ghannouchi’s relationships and relavant commentary on his position:

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While Ghannouchi professes a desire for his party to be part of the democratic political process, comparing Ennahda to the Turkish AKP, it’s not clear how the party may act without him leading personally.

Also of note, is that Ennahda is not the only Islamist group pushing for influence. The transnational group Hizb ut-Tahrir announced through a spokesman that it was seeking to impose Sharia law in Tunisia.

So, as Tunisia edges closer to being the first Arab Spring country to attempt a democratic election, scrutiny on the outcome will only grow as the results potentially indicate the direction of other countries such as Egypt experiencing political instability.

You can follow all the developments in Tunisia by clicking on the image below and selecting the green “Create Future” button:

Click for View and Alert - Political Events on Tunisia Assembly Elections

Final Thoughts

This high level analysis raises several other critical questions that watch leading up to the July elections in Tunisia. Who actually takes the lead for Ennadha as it contends for political representation and what will the public support in Tunisia be for an Islamist party? Is the possibility of a military coup real? And finally, can we anticipate the expectations and impact an Ennadha dominated assembly will have on the country?

If these are the types of questions you need to answer as an analyst, visit Recorded Future to see if any of our plans for open source intelligence analysis make sense for your research.