One country caught up in the Arab Spring not receiving quite the same level of media attention as Tunisia, Egypt and Libya is the small island nation of Bahrain. Pro-democracy protests remain largely off the mainstream news radar despite 30+ deaths related to the demonstrations and the main opposition party walking out of government talks in recent weeks.

Despite ongoing public dissent in the country, online news momentum around protests in the country is notably lower than the most tense moments during March. Coverage of protest related events has dropped off precipitously since a government crackdown on Shiite protesters (assisted by Saudi Arabia) took place on March 16.

However, lower momentum doesn’t mean the absence of activity, and you can see a small bump in coverage toward the end of May as well as the most recent political news that leaders of Al Wefaq, the country’s Shiite opposition party, left talks with the kingdom’s Sunni government.

The last month has actually been full of politically loaded events that could incite further unrest ahead of parliamentary voting in late September and early November.

Major Political Events in Bahrain - July 2011 - Click for Live View

So what events are out there on the horizon that could catalyze further unrest? We can find predictions from pundits, including one statement from Ali al-Ahmad, director of the Institute of Gulf Affairs, suggesting that the tide in Bahrain will turn on the current monarchy before the end of the year. All that goes without mentioning the speculation in the timeline above that the US could remove some of its naval presence.

Here’s a look at Bahrain over the rest of the year:

Events to Shape Future of Bahrain - Click to View

Let’s consider just a few:

• Parliamentary elections split across two dates – September 24 and October 1;
• The holiday National Bahrain Day that typically draws Shiite protests;
• Perhaps most critical, the withdrawal of remaining US troops from Iraq. Analysts have already linked Iranian efforts to protests in Bahrain. The added uncertainty caused by removal of US troops could perhaps embolden covert efforts to spark trouble in Bahrain and the surrounding region.

Where else would we look for signals of what’s to come? Well we previously mentioned the Al Wefaq party as a critical player in asserting a more democratic government. Let’s look at their political connections from this year so far:

Al Wefaq Treemap - Connections in 2011

Looking at the above treemap you can pick out some of the prominent and potentially unexpected connections whether it’s individuals or governments. You find critical geographic influences including Iran (allegedly fueling the protests), the US (trying to unlock political participation), and Kuwait (acting as a mediator).

Using the Al Wefaq connections shown in the treemap, I generated a watchlist to keep an eye on the next 30 days for some of the critical entities including countries, individuals and political organizations. You can see some critical dates, especially related to geopolitical rivals Saudia Arabia and Iran, and set up a Futures alert to track the issue yourself by clicking below:

From recent 60 days news, near future of Bahraini political interests

Some sensitive issues and events coming to a head during the coming weeks in Bahrain, and they’re all leading up to scheduled elections in a country with citizens clamoring for democratic government and greater political freedom.