As protests continue to percolate across the Middle East, one group remains noticeably absent: Al-Qaeda. Usually the harbinger of unrest and chaos, some analysts are attributing the group’s slow reaction time to its narrative of jihad, which runs counter to the pulsing democratic reform movement fueled by young, largely secular Arabs. However, as Islamist organizations join the fray, the power equation could change in Al-Qaeda’s favor.

Fortunately, there are only a few countries in which Al-Qaeda could make political gains, and we can use news analytic data gathered from open sources around the web to determine where does Al-Qaeda stand today, and how it might exploit new political opportunities in the future.

One source indicates that the escalating unrest in Yemen could benefit Al-Qaeda if the democracy movement topples President Saleh but fails to implement reforms. At the moment, pressure continues to mount on Saleh and radical groups are gaining momentum, and it seems Yemen is the place where Al-Qaeda has the deepest connections to potentially turn unrest in its favor.

The Yemen Times also featured an article on February 17th about the implications of Al-Qaeda in Yemen, especially for local communities saying, “Should Al-Qaeda in Yemen become as strong and threatening as its counterpart in Iraq, tribal communities in Yemen will be expected to form Iraqi-style ‘sahawat’, or ‘awakening councils.’” The formation of these councils would further entrench the group’s power in the country.

There are several other trends impacting Al-Qaeda that are worth mentioning. To explore these trends in real time, click on the graph below:

Timeline of Al Qaeda trends

The first item of note is something that may have gone underreported in the press. On February 9th,  the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt denounced Al-Qaeda on its website, Ikhwanweb, for suggesting that  young Egyptians should wage jihad. It also denounced other jihadi groups for suggesting that jihad was the solution to the Mubarak regime. Many news analysts emphasize the historical relationship between the Brotherhood and Al-Qaeda, but that may no longer be the case. This event highlights the fact that Al-Qaeda’s answers are not resonating with the protest movement. Even the Brotherhood has come out in condemnation of the group.

Another development is Al-Qaeda’s increased use of magazines to project its message. The organization now has several English-language publications reflecting its ideology, the latest called Al-Shamika. Several news outlets reported on the release of the magazine, but few pondered its broader implications. Several sources on the timeline above indicated that Al Qaeda increasingly views these magazines as an  effective recruitment tool.

Other analysts have noted that the “Arab Spring could be Al-Qaeda’s fall”. The article suggests that the weakening of security forces in Arab countries could present new opportunities for regional jihadi groups, but not so much for Al-Qaeda.

Conclusion

Al-Qaeda has so far proven ineffective at exploiting the unrest in the Middle East. Its narrative of anti-democratic jihad is the polar opposite of the reforms that most Arabs are seeking. In contrast, Al-Qaeda may be able to reach broader audiences in countries where the momentum of radical groups is increasing. Al-Qaeda’s broader strategy in the future may be to expand into areas that are not experiencing democratic unrest.

Want to stay up-to-date with Al-Qaeda’s influence in Yemen? Consider setting up a future that will notify you of current developments in Yemen.

In a recent post, we discussed Yemeni opposition parties and their ties to extremist groups. A few days ago, the most influential leader of the Islah party Abdul Majid al-Zindani stated that “an Islamic state is coming” in Yemen. Abdul Majid al-Zindani is a former mentor of Osama Bin Laden and the leader of the Islah party representing Islamists, tribalists, and Salafists in Yemen. He is also one of the most powerful clerics in Yemen and his words carry considerable weight.

There is another growing Islamist force on the rise in Yemen and elsewhere. That force is Hizb-ut-Tahrir, a pan-Islamic organization that opposes democracy and seeks the “formation of a transnational Islamic caliphate”. It is banned in many countries and has been accused of supporting terrorist organizations. However, Hizb-ut-Tahrir claims that it is a peaceful organization of one million members and does not support violence.

Using open source intelligence tools we can discover more about the political affiliations and statements of Hizb-ut-Tahrir. Is the organization really what it claims to be?

Aside: For general background information on Hizb-ut-Tahrir, consider reading GlobalSecurity.org’s article on the party. It provides a foundational introduction to the organization’s political structure and motivations.

So, who leads Hizb-ut-Tahrir? The leader of an organization is almost always at the top of the policy pyramid and plays a critical role in shaping its ideology. Recorded Future’s network tool can provide information about the political statements of Hizb’s leaders.

Hizb-ut-Tahrir Link to Burhan Hanif

One of the leaders of Hizb-ut-Tahrir is Burhan Hanif, who has openly stated that, “Muslims should shun democracy.” Most of what Hizb-ut-Tahrir has said in the press also reflects this viewpoint. Over the past few years we find a steady flow of information supporting Hizb-ut-Tahrir’s anti-democratic sentiment.

Hizb-ut-Tahrir Timeline of Quotations Past Year

Points of interest include:

• Hizb-ut-Tahrir has been banned in Bangladesh for threatening to topple the government. (Source 1, Source 2, Source 3)

• Kyrgyzstan identifies it as a threat to its security (Source 1, Source 2)

• In July, the Marriott in Chicago canceled a conference planned by Hizb-ut-Tahrir when it discovered that, “speakers at previous conferences have denounced democracy”. A Muslim school in Bridgeview, Illinois, also backed out of hosting the group. The article also indicates that Hizb-ut-Tahrir has a relatively pale following in the United States compared to other Muslim groups.

Hizb-ut-Tahrir Media Overview

• An editorial by the Telegraph of London notes that, “Hizb-ut-Tahrir is an organisation that is anti-semitic and anti-democratic. Its members in Denmark have called for the killing of Jews and one of its activists here has called for the death of the criminal capitalist nation of America and other infidel (kuffar) states by the army of jihad”. It also states that Hizb-ut-Tahrir publications have described “Western education as a threat to our [Muslim] beliefs and values”.

• The group was nearly banned in Australia because of its political platform and possible links to terrorist groups. Although these links have not been completely confirmed, Clive Williams, head of terrorism studies at the Australian National University indicates that, “There are many instances, though, of those whose views were forged in Hizb ut-Tahrir subsequently taking part in terrorism.” It has been reported that the group also supports the insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan and calls for the military elimination of Israel.  The group has also been banned in Russia and listed as a terrorist organization.

Does Hizb-ut-Tahrir have any links to potentially violent groups?

Links to Violent Groups

Hizb-ut-Tahrir is suspected of having links to al-Muhajiroun and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. Hizb is currently banned in several central Asian countries, perhaps based partially on these links. Al-Muhajiroun is a banned Islamist organization in Britain and is proscribed under the UK Terrorism Act of 2000. The IMU was a terrorist organization that sought to overthrow the government of Uzbekistan and implement Sharia law. It is thought that the organization no longer exists.

Where does Hizb-ut-Tahrir fit into the current crisis in the Middle East?

The organization recently has shown its ability to flex its political muscle at the university level. In Bangladesh, “Hizb-ut Tahrir – which has well known global links – has been active lately in universities and the government may well have been worried about its increasing influence among students”. This ability to organize may have a future impact on events in the region.

The current protest movements have largely been influenced by students, and Hizb-ut-Tahrir has shown its ability to appeal to at least a portion of the student populace. Although the group may not have overt political goals (such as running for election) it still may be able to influence political events behind the scenes.

Conclusion

OSINT evidence suggests that Hizb-ut-Tahrir is staunchly anti-democratic and may be a security threat to regional governments. It is currently banned in a number of countries for this reason. Hizb-ut-Tahrir may still attempt to exploit the current political situation in the Middle East, even though most protests so far support democratic reform. Its anti-democratic message may appeal to a subset of the population, particularly in countries such as Yemen that lack secular opposition parties.

Further, the group has shown its ability to organize at the university level and appeal to a younger audience. In Yemen and other failing Middle Eastern governments, it may take advantage of a newfound opportunity to spread its ideology.

The AP and international media channels last week reported statements from Pakistani Taliban spokesman Azam Tariq that barely veiled threats of violence against foreign aid workers responding to catastrophic flooding.

In coverage of Tariq’s statement below, you can see that rationale is claimed as international relief efforts are suspected to have “other unspecified ‘intentions’” beyond aid to flood victims (click the image for an expanded view).

Pakistani Taliban Spokesman Azam Tariq Threatens Relief Workers

This warning came several weeks after the group publicly called for the Pakistani government to reject American aid (two such events can be seen below in Recorded Future query for “Pakistani Taliban Movement” over the past month), claiming it could provide $20 million dollars of support funding itself.

Pakistani Taliban Calls for Denial of International Support

The scenario can be put into context looking back at how public opinion of the United States changed in Pakistan following the US-led humanitarian assistance efforts for Pakistan after the 2005 earthquake. Polls at the time from Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for Public Opinion showed “78% of Pakistanis have a more favorable opinion of the United States because of the American response to the earthquake, with the strongest support among those under 35.”

One can see how the decidedly anti-American Tehrik-i-Taliban might not want a repeat of history. To that point, we see the public opinion effects already spotlighted when looking at the network for Azam Tariq from August 10, just before the organization’s first statements, through August 30.

Recent Relationship Network for Azam Tariq

Reactionary, public signals from the Tehrik-i-Taliban emerged several weeks after momentum for “Natural Disaster” discussion around flooding in the country peaked. Below you can see the momentum and timeline for a search using the “Natural Disaster” event designation over the “Last 60 days” for Pakistan.

Recent Timeline for "Natural Disaster" in Pakistan

Despite its best efforts, the group has failed to stop the UN from claiming it has reached roughly 70 percent of its target for aid contributions. Searching for the Pakistani city “Sukkur” over the last seven days in Recorded Future we see:

Knowing that the Pakistani Taliban activity is likely to generate further commentary and media speculation throughout the flood relief period, you might want to seek out statements (using the Quotation event in the “What” field) including “taliban” over the period from the group’s initial public position on aid and prior to threats of violence.

Below we see acknowledgement of the brewing situation back in mid-August from Pakistan’s Interior Minister Rehman Malik, saying, “the Taliban would not be allowed to take advantage of the crisis to increase its support.”

Clearly, the issue will continue to be a contentious and precarious one as UN and other aid organizations are refusing to curtail their support efforts despite the threats.

Using Recorded Future, one could start to determine patterns and make predictions around any number of the themes discussed above. After a natural disaster brings humanitarian aid, it seems that the Taliban (or at least its local arm) can be expected to puff out its chest in opposition to outside support.

Even more critical, and hopefully not tragic, will be to track and analyze how the statements surrounding humanitarian workers play out. One can only hope that they remain safe and the threats are nothing more than words.

You can keep tabs on statements from Azam Tariq (and many other public figures) by subscribing to a Future alert:

As always, feel free to share your thoughts below. What other spaces would be valuable to watch on this issue? Are there particular individuals and groups or perhaps a regional focus on how recovery is going in particular cities or regions that you think might provide valuable indicators?

Want to learn more about Recorded Future news analytics? Check out how analysts use our tool for open source intelligence.

On July 11 at the very end of the soccer World Cup, Al-Shabaab carried out multiple bombings in Kampala killing over 70 people. We’ve mentioned Al-Shabaab previously in the pattern of life analysis on Omar Hammami but now examine the organization more broadly as it takes violence outside of Somalia.

Kampala is usually a pretty quiet city on the “world scale,” but clearly online Momentum for the city rose sharply around the bombings.

Kampala 2010 Timeline

We might ask ourselves, who are these Al-Shabaab guys, and can we predict/monitor what they may be planning using open source intelligence?

We conduct the query Person Career Al-Shabaab in Recorded Future to find titles/descriptions of people and display a network chart which allows exploration of the organization over time. For example, we could look back into their early history when Aden Hashi ran the organization.

Aden Hashi - Al-Shabaab Network

Organizing our analysis

We use the new Recorded Future Workbook functionality, which will soon be deployed to all Premium users, to structure our analysis.

The workbook allows users to organize and annotate queries into analytic products that easily can be shared with colleagues or turned into Futures (our alert system).

[We believe shared workbooks will become one of the most powerful aspects of Recorded Future.]

Recorded Future Workbook

Using this we may now take a look at the head of Al-Shabaab – Mukhtar Abdurahman Abu Zubeyr – and in particular look at whether he had indicated Uganda as a target.

In fact he did, and not only that, but he very explicitly threatened the country a week prior to the attack. Below, you can see the excerpt from AFP reporting on the statements one week (July 4/5) ahead of the bombings.

Warning of Attack on Uganda

Who should feel threatened? What’s in the Future?

In the wake of Al-Shabaab’s actions outside Somalia, the obvious question appears to who/where may be next.  Exploring in Recorded Future we find Mukhtar Abdurahman Abu Zubeyr as well as his spokesperson Ali Mohamud Rage speaking about:

• July 4th – peace keepers in Somalia: “…released an audiotape that was broadcast on Somali radio stations in which he vowed to attack in Uganda and Burundi for sending troops…”. The peace keeping operation is organized by the AUO – and they have a key meeting in Uganda during late July.
• June 24th – democracies: “…The reality is that democracy is something Allah made unlawful, and someone else cannot make it lawful…”. Next year’s election in Uganda is a danger zone.
• June 26th – Somaliland voters: “…Days before Saturday’s presidential polls in the self-declared state, another key democratic test for Somaliland, the militant Islamist movement’s overall leader Ahmed Abdi Godane issued a chilling warning to voters…”
• May 1st – Foreign security companies – “… blamed the attack on the work of ‘foreign security companies’ whose aim, he said, was to massacre Muslims…”
• Jan 17th – American troops:  “…He also warned that if American troops are ever sent to Somalia they will end up dead…”

Al-Shabaab has proven that they can execute sophisticated and coordinated attacks beyond their borders, attract foreigners like Omar Hammimi, and are making threats (and executing upon them) against a broad set of targets.

Learn more about Recorded Future’s ground-breaking web-based media analytics. Developing your own application? Check out our news analytics API.