Recorded Future analyst Munish Puri details key issues in the Keystone Pipeline political debate and identifies critical factors that will influence success or failure for the project’s approval.

Methodology

My analysis begins by setting a query in Recorded Future on the Keystone Pipeline. Next, I dove into specific sources and articles, filtering based on popularity, predictions, and frequency of citation. With the larger data set and the specific subsets just listed, I listed the various key players according to the Network, mostly to sensitize my reading and synthesis. Then I analyzed Momentum to track where the story shifted and focused on those points for sentiment analysis. Finally, for each inflection point, I zoomed in on a set of stories to understand what happened, in what order, and why it was reflected on positively and/or negatively.

Mainly, questions centered around what happened with the pipeline proposal, why it was (eventually) rejected, what will happen next — and by whom, and what are the key predictive indicators. As for the latter, I tracked any forward-looking events mentioned in articles, as well as possible alternative outcomes mentioned by the various stakeholders. Also, I changed the parameters for the query to focus on 2012. Lastly, I compiled the analysis below.

Issue Overview

TransCanada plans to extend its Keystone Pipeline (operational from June 2010) from the “tar sands” of Canada’s Alberta province to refineries in Texas on the Gulf Coast.  The $7 billion Keystone Gulf Coast Expansion (Keystone XL) would be completed in two phases, which pass through Nebraska, Montana, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Kansas, and end in Texas. If finished, the extension would increase the United States’ oil supply by half the amount of annual imports.

Debate centers around the cost, value, reliability, and environmental impact of the pipeline. In addition to TransCanada, proponents of the projects — many Republican politicians, construction companies, labor unions, and some (Canadian) government officials — argue that the pipeline will create jobs and decrease the US’ reliance on foreign sources of oil. Political and environmental opposition abounds, particularly as covered by the blog of the National Resources Defense Council (NRDC). Environmental nongovernmental organizations, landowners, Democratic politicians, and even some (American) celebrities express concern over TransCanada’s safety record and the possibility of leakage, as well as concern about climate change and greenhouse gas emissions, a result of oil sands production. On job creation, a report from the Global Labor Institute challenged the company’s estimate, which TransCanada later revised. Finally, potential pipeline construction prompted worry about local environmental impacts, particularly in Nebraska, in which the pipeline could effect the Sand Hills ecosystem or contaminate the Ogallala Aquifier, a major source for irrigation and drinking water.

Key Developments & Sentiment Inflection Points

“In the end, neither side can predict with confidence what Obama will decide.” -Washington Post, November 5, 2011

In early June 2011, the U.S. Department of Transportation ordered the shutdown of TransCanada’s Keystone pipeline, as investigations revealed safety concerns at pump stations. At the same time, the U.S. State Department was completing public consultations about the Keystone XL phase of the project. There is generally positive sentiment around the announcement, likely because it showed U.S. commitment to a proactive approach to preventing possible spills.

In August, the State Department issued its own environmental impact assessment, concluding that the pipeline will not cause significant damage to the environment as long as TransCanada complies with U.S. law. The reaction to this news was noticeably more positive than negative, but that could be as a result of progress toward a decision, not necessarily sentiment about the project.

In October, documents were released (by Mother Jones as a result of a FOIA request by Friends of the Earth) that cast doubt on the impartiality of the State Department’s assessment. Later, the State Department opened an investigation of the process around issuing a permit for the pipeline. Additionally, environmental advocacy organizations sued to stop the development of the pipeline. This development showed positive sentiment, perhaps due to transparency in government decision-making. A second development, TransCanada’s announcement that it could lose up to $1 million per day with a delay was met with negative sentiment, an indicator of disconnect between the company’s statement and public opinion.

In early November, the U.S. State Department announced that it was considering an alternate route for the pipeline, which represented the highest peak in momentum around any event related to the pipeline in 2011. As the reported possibility of the alternative route seemed to be more likely, the State Department announced that it would delay its decision until 2013, which was accompanied by a large spike in positive sentiment. An analyst with MF Global Washington Research Group wrote in a research note that the fate of the pipeline has grown “less secure” and “the odds favour approval, but an extended delay is looking more and more possible.” Given the increased attention and political importance of the decision, President Obama become more personally involved with the decision.

In mid-December, the Republican-led House passed a proposal to require a decision within 60 days. President Obama threatened to veto the bill if it reached his desk, however, the State Department warned that a hasty decision would decrease the project’s chances for approval (in particular, because a recently-passed Nebraska law requires an environmental review that could last from 6 to 9 months). These developments saw an interesting double-peaked positive sentiment curve, with a sizable peak in negative sentiment situated between the two positive peaks — underlying policy uncertainty about whether the Republicans would be able to successfully attach an expedited executive review to legislation on a payroll tax cut.

In mid-January, President Obama announced that he was rejecting the permit for the pipeline, based on insufficient time to evaluate the project, not on the merits of the project itself. Republicans continued to pressure the President to make a decision, highlighting a divide among two traditionally Democratic demographics: labor unions and environmentalists. As a result of the President’s decision, environmental groups celebrated the victory and TransCanada (and the Canadian government) focused on alternative pathways forward on the project.

Conclusion: Predictive Indicators

Following are possible action from various groups, as well as indicators of what to watch in the coming weeks and months:

Corporate – announcements about next steps and tactical shifts:

• Re-file/appeal permit application
• Build pipeline down Pacific corridor to export to China
• Create smaller expansions that would not require State Dept. approval

Legislative/Political – statements from Congressional party leaders:

• Move decision out of hands of State Department and to Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
• Re-attach decision provision to payroll cut extension (expires at end of February)
• Leverage President’s decision to develop political capital for elections

Nongovernmental – change campaign targets and actions:

• Mount resistance to other pipeline projects, such as one proposed by another Canadian company, Enbridge
• Use decision to delay to build momentum during elections

Whether or not the President’s delay on a decision will have a long-term impact will depend, oddly, on future projects that come across his desk (or if they make it that far); given the election and political dynamics, the next decision point will establish a policy precedent for preventing such proposals from coming to fruition.

Pop over to Drew Conway’s blog Zero Intelligence Agents and check out his latest post “Who are the most central members of the China’s leadership as we enter 2012?” Drew is a PhD student in political science at New York University. Drew studies terrorism and armed conflict; using tools from mathematics and computer science to gain a deeper understanding of these phenomena. He analyzed a massive amount of Recorded Future data gathered from open source, did some math magic and came up with a pretty compelling analysis.

The competition for the Republican presidential nomination has so far been littered with false starts, short sprints into the lead, and a persistent reversion to uncertainty regarding a clear frontrunner.

The volume of coverage, flashes of news dominance by various campaigns provides, and, if we’re being honest, the occasionally unpredictable personalities of the current candidates, provide perfect fuel for conducting research using news analytic data from the Recorded Future index.

For example, by pulling aggregate data from the Recorded Future API for coverage of seven prominent Republican candidates and looking at them based on the daily momentum of their names in the media, we can quickly identify the timing of flameouts for the potential campaigns of Sarah Palin and Donald Trump.

Media momentum for Donald Trump and Sarah Palin - 2011

If we want to go further into identifying the real life events driving these trends in the media, we can use Recorded Future analytic tools to investigate the forces behind smaller momentum bumps for Sarah Palin in September and October. They turn out to be the last attempts to squeeze media attention from her potential, and eventual non-entry into the race.

Sarah Palin Momentum in September and October

Rather than these campaigns that experience dramatic ups and downs, maybe we want to understand how news momentum developed comparatively for a pairing like Mike Huckabee and Rick Perry? The first, a prospective candidate without the flash of other competitors and a campaign that never lifted off the ground, versus Rick Perry, a candidate that over the course of this year rose from primarily regional to national media figure.

In the view below, we’re back to charting the raw news analytic data from Recorded Future for each of the two candidates:

Momentum of Perry versus Huckabee - 2011

There are all sorts of interesting storylines that could be explored along the way – say, the sentiment of statements made about Herman Cain over the course of 2011? But the last week or two provides one of the most intriguing twists in the contest so far: the unexpected resurgence of Newt Gingrich and renewed support that suggests he should once again be considered a viable option for the nomination.

News momentum around Newt Gingrich during 2011 - Click to see live

It’s an incredible shift in the landscape for the Republican candidacy given the total dearth of interest in him as a candidate since June when the bulk of his staffed resigned. The recent week actually carries the highest news momentum so far this year for Gingrich. What remains to be seen is whether his wave (or that of any competitor for that matter) will last long enough to secure the nomination.

Looking Forward

We think it’s useful to contextualize what’s taken place in the race thus far, but there’s also this intriguing aspect of identifying which candidates are most frequently being discussed with the future in mind. So, on the heels of last night’s CNN debate, let’s take a look at the aggregate predictions mentioning a candidate and “republican nomination” from November through the 2012 elections. What names are most associated with the Republican nomination?

Again, we’re displaying the results from web content related to the Republican nomination published since November (click through to set up an alert and follow along), and the results are limited to display results for the top 12 individuals. The distinction between columns is that “Events” are any mention of the person while “Predictions” represents only mentions of a person along with a time point in the future (i.e., “next week”, “2012″, “next fall”).

Summarizing some of the above results:

• Mitt Romney is mentioned most in relation to “republican nomination,” both overall and in the context of a future event. Seemingly good news for the candidate most often described as the safe frontrunner.
• Several supposed non-players – Sarah Palin and Donald Trump – still appear prominently in discussions related to the nomination.
• Herman Cain is the third most mentioned candidate since November, but ranks eighth when evaluating future facing statements. Perhaps not a good sign for his campaign.

We’ll be following this issue closely to see if shifts in the future facing statements around a political campaign may be an indicator of success for a candidate’s bid. We’d love to hear your thoughts!

One country caught up in the Arab Spring not receiving quite the same level of media attention as Tunisia, Egypt and Libya is the small island nation of Bahrain. Pro-democracy protests remain largely off the mainstream news radar despite 30+ deaths related to the demonstrations and the main opposition party walking out of government talks in recent weeks.

Despite ongoing public dissent in the country, online news momentum around protests in the country is notably lower than the most tense moments during March. Coverage of protest related events has dropped off precipitously since a government crackdown on Shiite protesters (assisted by Saudi Arabia) took place on March 16.

However, lower momentum doesn’t mean the absence of activity, and you can see a small bump in coverage toward the end of May as well as the most recent political news that leaders of Al Wefaq, the country’s Shiite opposition party, left talks with the kingdom’s Sunni government.

The last month has actually been full of politically loaded events that could incite further unrest ahead of parliamentary voting in late September and early November.

Major Political Events in Bahrain - July 2011 - Click for Live View

So what events are out there on the horizon that could catalyze further unrest? We can find predictions from pundits, including one statement from Ali al-Ahmad, director of the Institute of Gulf Affairs, suggesting that the tide in Bahrain will turn on the current monarchy before the end of the year. All that goes without mentioning the speculation in the timeline above that the US could remove some of its naval presence.

Here’s a look at Bahrain over the rest of the year:

Events to Shape Future of Bahrain - Click to View

Let’s consider just a few:

• Parliamentary elections split across two dates – September 24 and October 1;
• The holiday National Bahrain Day that typically draws Shiite protests;
• Perhaps most critical, the withdrawal of remaining US troops from Iraq. Analysts have already linked Iranian efforts to protests in Bahrain. The added uncertainty caused by removal of US troops could perhaps embolden covert efforts to spark trouble in Bahrain and the surrounding region.

Where else would we look for signals of what’s to come? Well we previously mentioned the Al Wefaq party as a critical player in asserting a more democratic government. Let’s look at their political connections from this year so far:

Al Wefaq Treemap - Connections in 2011

Looking at the above treemap you can pick out some of the prominent and potentially unexpected connections whether it’s individuals or governments. You find critical geographic influences including Iran (allegedly fueling the protests), the US (trying to unlock political participation), and Kuwait (acting as a mediator).

Using the Al Wefaq connections shown in the treemap, I generated a watchlist to keep an eye on the next 30 days for some of the critical entities including countries, individuals and political organizations. You can see some critical dates, especially related to geopolitical rivals Saudia Arabia and Iran, and set up a Futures alert to track the issue yourself by clicking below:

From recent 60 days news, near future of Bahraini political interests

Some sensitive issues and events coming to a head during the coming weeks in Bahrain, and they’re all leading up to scheduled elections in a country with citizens clamoring for democratic government and greater political freedom.

It’s been nearly five months since Tunisia’s longtime President Zine al-Abedine Ben Ali abandoned his post and country in the face of widespread public protests. Yet, despite the swell of pro-democratic sentiment, Tunisia remains without an elected government.

Since Ben Ali’s departure lit the wick for an explosive few months of protest across North Africa and the Middle East, Tunisia’s future remains unclear. Many of the old regime’s officials remain in place, and a creeping power grab by once outlawed Islamist groups is underway ahead of July assembly elections.

In the timeline above, which spans 2010 and 2011, you see little mention of Islamist parties in relation to Tunisia prior to Ben Ali’s departure. Explanations likely include the country’s seeming political stability as well as limited activity due to bans on such groups.

The spike in January clearly corresponds to the peak of the protests in both Tunisia and Egypt, while several other spikes include the return of exiled Islamist party leaders, including longtime head figure Rached Ghannouchi, and ongoing protests forcing the government to legalize prominent political group Ennahda (al-Nahda).

The group has only continued to rise in political activity, sparking claims from a former Tunisian interior minister that the Ben Ali loyalists would stage a coup should Islamists take power in the July elections.

Perhaps the most interesting twist in the story of Ennahda since its resurgence this year was that Rached Ghannouchi, who was in exile for 22 years during Ben Ali’s rule, claims to not be interested in a political position with the group.

The leadership structure for Ennahda remains murky, but it may be valuable in understanding Tunisia’s status to recognize Ghannouchi’s relationships and relavant commentary on his position:

Click for live view

While Ghannouchi professes a desire for his party to be part of the democratic political process, comparing Ennahda to the Turkish AKP, it’s not clear how the party may act without him leading personally.

Also of note, is that Ennahda is not the only Islamist group pushing for influence. The transnational group Hizb ut-Tahrir announced through a spokesman that it was seeking to impose Sharia law in Tunisia.

So, as Tunisia edges closer to being the first Arab Spring country to attempt a democratic election, scrutiny on the outcome will only grow as the results potentially indicate the direction of other countries such as Egypt experiencing political instability.

You can follow all the developments in Tunisia by clicking on the image below and selecting the green “Create Future” button:

Click for View and Alert - Political Events on Tunisia Assembly Elections

Final Thoughts

This high level analysis raises several other critical questions that watch leading up to the July elections in Tunisia. Who actually takes the lead for Ennadha as it contends for political representation and what will the public support in Tunisia be for an Islamist party? Is the possibility of a military coup real? And finally, can we anticipate the expectations and impact an Ennadha dominated assembly will have on the country?

If these are the types of questions you need to answer as an analyst, visit Recorded Future to see if any of our plans for open source intelligence analysis make sense for your research.

On April 1st, the Telegraph released a detailed analysis of Gaddafi’s inner circle. The article places the leadership into three categories: defectors, likely defectors, and loyalists. However, details were missing on high ranking Libyan military leaders. Further, few press reports have documented the role of military leaders directly involved in the conflict. This may be because Gaddafi has sought to, “weaken the conventional army, creating instead a parallel structure of security brigades whose loyalty is tied to his family”. Here we will examine the complex web of Gaddafi’s political and military relationships. Open source intelligence tools can help us discover new information about these social networks.

The recent UN Security Council resolution contains a wealth of information about Gaddafi’s inner circle. Within the document is a list of known members of Gaddafi’s political and military associates that are banned from traveling abroad. There are a two names on this list that stand out:

Abdulqader Mohammed Al-Baghdadi

Network visualization of Al-Bahdadi's relationships

Al-Baghdadi is the current Prime Minister of Libya under the Gaddafi regime. Although he is designated the Secretary of the General People’s Committee, he is not actually the head of state. Gaddafi and his military leadership appears hold those powers. However, al-Baghdadi does wield considerable power over the oil industry in Libya because of his post on the High Council for Oil & Gas. The report by the MEED also indicates five other influential Libyan leaders in the oil industry: Shokri Mohamed Ghanem, Ahmed al-Hadi Aoun, Azzam al-Mesallati, Omar Gazal and Ali el-Sogher Mohamed Salah. Although many of Gaddafi’s closest advisors have been sacked or defected, Baghdadi is still involved with Libyan government operations. Al-Baghdadi also appears to be affected by the UN sanctions as he was forced to send a deputy to Greece to convey Gaddafi’s message.

Colonel Abdullah Al-Senussi

Overview of media reports related to al-Senoussi

Colonel Abdullah Al-Senussi may be the most influential player within Gaddafi’s inner circle. One article discovered using Recorded Future’s open source intelligence tool states that, “Qadaffi’s most trusted aide, Abdullah Al-Senussi, the director of Military Intelligence…[is said to have] organized mass killings in Benghazi early in the uprising and recruited foreign mercenaries to fight for Qaddafi”. Al-Senussi is the brother-in-law of Gaddafi and is a shadowy figure- only two photos of him can be found. If the reports are correct, then Al-Senussi was responsible for the early mass killing in Benghazi. He was the adviser that called in foreign mercenaries to fight for Gaddafi. The mercenaries from neighboring African countries have bolstered Gaddafi’s security forces and made it more difficult for the rebels to advance.

Although Al-Senussi has been one of Gaddafi’s closest advisers, reports have surfaced that he may have been sacked in February. According to the Telegraph, “His current whereabouts and role are uncertain following reports he was sacked and even, in one rumour for which there is no evidence, shot”. His inability to contain the rebellion may have angered Gaddafi and caused him to take action against Al-Senussi. However, his role cannot entirely be ruled out because of conflicting reports.
Gaddafi’s Family

The role that Gaddafi’s sons play in the Libyan government should not be underestimated. Gaddafi has recently sought to decentralize the military and place this authority in the hands of his family. Thus, the power of Gaddafi’s sons has increased and has turned them into a force of military power. Which sons are the most powerful?

Khamis Gaddafi

Khamis Gaddafi's political relationships

Khamis is directly linked to his father militarily. According to one source he is the leader of the Khamis Brigade, one of Gaddafi’s most important armed factions. The Brigade has also played a leading role in the recent Libyan conflict. On March 22nd it was reported that Khamis Gaddafi was allegedly killed when a Libyan pilot crashed his plane near the Bab al-Azizia barracks. In response, Libyan state TV published a video claiming to show live footage of Khamis  Gaddafi. Both The footage claiming he is alive and the reports of his death have been disputed. Therefore, no one in the press truly knows whether Khamis is dead or not.

Press reports related to Khamis Gaddafi

Hassan Gaddafi
This son is an Army general and was recently “ordered to win support from the Ourfella tribe” for his father. He likely plays only a marginal role in his father’s regime.
Mutassim Gaddafi
He is his father’s National Security Adviser and has met with State Department officials. According to the Financial Times, he also has his own military brigade.

Seif al-Islam Gaddafi

Timeline of press statements related to Seif al-Islam Gaddafi

Seif has appeared as the public face of the Gaddafi regime during the Libyan crisis. He has conducted numerous interviews and appeared to be an heir apparent of his father. Although schooled in the West, he has since become the mouthpiece of his father’s oppressive regime .

The Thorn in the Side of Gaddafi- Abdul Fatah Younis

Overview of media reports mentioning Abdel Fattah Younis

Abdul Fatah Younis used to be one of Gaddafi’s most trusted generals. Younis was a member of the officer corps that overthrew King Idris in 1969 and held the post of Minister of the Interior. Some reports even suggest that he was Gaddafi’s right-hand man. Why should Gaddafi be afraid of Younis?
Younis was one of the first generals sent by Gaddafi to put down the Libyan uprising. Instead of putting down the uprising, he changed sides and joined the rebels. Gaddafi has since placed a US $4 million bounty on his head . Although the rebels have sinced demoted Younis to chief of staff, he is still playing an active role in the resistance movement.

The man who knows everything about Gaddafi’s tactics is fighting alongside the rebels.

Conclusion

Gaddafi’s inner circle is showing signs of weakness. Multiple defections of high-ranking officials has probably caused a brain drain within the Libyan government. The two actors with the greatest amount of knowledge and influence within Gaddafi’s government are on opposing sides. If Al-Senoussi is still at his post, he is likely coordinating attacks on the rebels and calling in mercenary reinforcements. Militarily he appears to be one of Gaddafi’s best suppliers of foreign fighters. In contrast, Gaddafi’s loss of Abdul Fatah Younis must have been a considerable blow to his campaign. Younis has 40 years of experience working for Gaddafi and represents the greatest tactical threat to the regime. The increasing military influence of Gaddafi’s sons should not be overlooked as Gaddafi has sought to decentralize the military in recent years.

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